2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA Predicts Above-Normal Activity
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season. The season officially begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th.
Factors Contributing to an Active Season
Two main factors are contributing to the prediction of an active season: El Niño and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. El Niño is a periodic warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean that can affect weather patterns around the globe. When El Niño is present, it tends to increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
The warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean provide fuel for hurricanes. Hurricanes form over warm ocean waters, and the warmer the water, the stronger the hurricane can become.
Predicted Number of Storms
NOAA is forecasting a total of 17 to 25 named storms during the 2024 season. Of these, 8 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, and 3 to 6 are expected to be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
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